Will 2016 be a Three-Way Race??
About the beginning of 2008, I noted a comment going around about the Clintons being popular with blacks because “Bill Clinton is a white black man.” It was a wildly popular quote.
At that time, I gave my usual little warning:
I pointed out in my blog that while white anti-whites were delighted with “Clinton is a white black man”, it would not be that long before blacks would want a real BLACK man.
When I said that, no one had even heard of the brand new junior senator from Illinois named Obama.
Now there is something else that could be as unexpected as Obama which nobody but me would notice.
Having been through what seems like a hundred presidential elections, I assumed that Trump would do what every other Republican who excites the grassroots does: he suddenly realizes he might get a Real Nomination.
The Republican Powers That Be tell him to abandon all that GrassRoots crap and put on his puppet strings and he does. That is what I expected Trump to do.
But this one is feeling a bit different.
Trump can afford to run on a third party ticket.
God knows I don’t want to get everybody here confused with election arithmetic the way I did with the 1932 German election. So just let me say this:
In three way race against a regular Republican and a regular Democrat, Trump might win.
I hope this arithmetic doesn’t causes the chaos my election stats on the 1932 German election did, so please pay close attention to the outstanding American example; Lincoln’s election in 1860.
Lincoln was, at the time, an extremist. He got only forty percent of the popular vote.
But Lincoln’s opponents, the Democrats, had split up, and nominated three different candidates.
Lincoln was not allowed to even campaign below the Mason-Dixon Line. He wrote off the South the way Republicans have to write off the minority vote.
The Accepted Wisdom was that you couldn’t win if you wrote off a major portion of the electorate. But Lincoln’s supporters DID write us off and they DID win.
Trump would write off the dying old National Review types and all eleven of the surviving Liberal Republicans. He could write off the minorities the Republicans have always said they have to appeal to.
Lincoln did it. Trump could do it.
There could be enough Americans out there to win a three-way race.
As with blacks wanting a BLACK, I just bring this up now because if it happens, everybody will have predicted it.
So I bring it up now.